COP21: The Review

Photograph: Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA

‘By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.’

This is how the Guardian summarised the Paris UN Climate talks, and I would say that I hold a fairly similar opinion. It cannot be denied that this is a momentous and pivotal moment in the development of international climate policy, and worthy of the jubilant scenes witnessed. Most notably, the undertaking of the initial commitments to reduce carbon emissions by 180 countries and the legally binding aspect of the climate fund, appear to be huge steps in the right direction.

However, whilst this outcome is no doubt progressive, the commitment to a maximum of 2 degrees warming is still incredibly high, and could render large areas of the world uninhabitable by 2100. Additionally, as it stands currently, the actual set emission targets will only limit warming to 2.7 degrees Celsius, still a long way above the original, and now seemingly unobtainable, 1.5 degree target.

In terms of the relation to this blogs' headline topic; migrants were ‘acknowledged’ within the document as having their human rights affected by climate change, but there was no direct discussion of policy regarding this. Indirectly, a number of the influential migration push factors that I have discussed (rising sea levels, drought risk, food insecurity) would be greatly improved if these new targets are kept to and further improved upon. However, depending on how the migration issue develops over the coming years, more specific ‘climate migrant’ policies may become a necessity at future conferences.

Hopefully the UK government will carry forward this momentum into 2016 and adopt an energy strategy more sufficient in meeting these ambitious carbon budgets in a cost effective and timely manner. In spite of DECC’s very positive contribution to climate policy over the years, the government’s recent energy policy has been a little more controversial. Scrapping zero-carbon targets and reductions in the level of support available for renewable initiatives have culminated in a somewhat embarrassing ‘downgrading’ of the energy efficiency rating of the UK, and are not conducive to achieving the targets set out during COP21.

The true success of this agreement will become better understood in the years to come, and will be dependent on how the framework continues to be developed during this time. Fingers crossed Obama is right in saying that this has provided us with the "best chance we have to save the one planet we have".