Food Insecurity

In a number of the previously discussed case studies, food security may have been a significant instigator of societal disruption. Particularly in the case of the Mayan example, a failure of their irrigation systems heavily decreased agricultural production. In a more recent example, as I explained in my very first post, the Syrian refugee crisis is thought to have been partially initiated by drought and consequential crop failure; a highly contentious proposal which Charlotte Church and Prince Charles, have become the unlikely advocates for. Tackling hunger has been described as ‘one the greatest challenges of our time’ by Wheeler and Braun (2013), and something which is expected to be complicated by numerous interrelated climate change risks in the near future.

Rising temperatures, precipitation changes, and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are just a few of the expected implications of climate change; all of which may directly interrupt agricultural production. Hanjra and Qureshi (2010) propose that changes to water supply and demand will most significantly impact upon crop productivity, but increased flooding and land loss will also be influential. However, the effects of this food insecurity is not expected to be felt equally around the world. As discussed by Wheeler and Braun (2013), the ‘fertiliser effect’, created by an increase in atmospheric carbon may intensify crop yields in some countries. However, a net negative impact for poorer nations is predicted, with rising temperatures excepted to decrease food production closer to the equator. Almost all of the countries in the ‘alarming’ category for food insecurity, as set by the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation, are in sub-Saharan Africa. This geographical distribution in the prevalence hunger is predicted to become even more divergent in a warming climate, with those in South East Asia and Africa expected to feel this insecurity to the greatest degree.

In addition to generating numerous deleterious effects, food security is thought to intensify internal rural-urban migration, as individuals attempt to reduce their vulnerability. If we consider Syria; rapid urbanisation was proposed to have exacerbated a number of pre-existing factors already contributing to unrest. These poorer countries expected to be disproportionately effected by future insecurity, are perhaps also more likely to suffer from enhanced vulnerability from other sources. Thus, this is a situation which may play out multiple times in a warming climate scenario.

Cross-border migration is also likely to increase, and is similarly recognised as a method of trying to manage this risk. When a study by the Southern African Migration programme looked at international migration, they found that 74% of migrant sending households received remittances. Of these households, 93% predominantly spent this money on food and groceries, with no other category coming remotely close. It is possible that those in the affected areas, may become even more reliant on international migration in the future.

There is also the possibility that migration itself may be the cause of food insecurity. For example, if we look at Bangladesh, a country incredibly susceptible to flooding; future events may push an increasing number of people over the border, and into neighbouring India. Not only would this put a strain on the current resources within the country, but when you consider the fact that global warming is predicted to cause a 40% decrease in the agricultural capacity of India by 2040, continued influxes may push India into a more food insecure state than they would have otherwise been in.

Climate change will not be the only factor effecting food production, nor will migration be the only response. However, there do seem to be a number of interrelated cause and effect relationships within this. A more detailed understanding of these relationships will be imperative in developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for food insecurity, which will undoubtedly continue to impact upon a huge percentage of the global population.